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Why You Can Beat Poker But Not Roulette

"What do you mean you beat poker? Don’t you know it’s all luck?" - Most girls I meet at bars

I hear this all the time and sometimes I go into a detailed explanation about why in the long run you can beat poker. Most of the time though, it’s Friday, I’ve just had a long week at work, I’ve got my glass of Obon on ice, and the last thing I want to do is go into a detailed explanation about why I’m making a living playing high stakes poker. So I usually just brush it aside and change the subject. After I finish writing this, I’ll just point them to the article and hopefully you, my hardcore poker reader, can make use of this article as well.

Why You Can't Beat Roulette

First things first, you can not beat the house. The house, meaning the casino, simply will not create a game that you can beat them out of money in the long run. Who do you think pays for all the glitzy lights, the free food, the wages of those cocktail girls? The players do. The national holding average for casinos is 29% which means that out of every dollar wagered the casino keeps 29 cents and lets you keep 71 (the rake). That’s a strong profit margin which combined with large volumes enables a casino to practically give away everything else.

That’s why nobody beats roulette. Casinos create games which always give them an edge. The edge might be even as small as half a percent (like if you’re a skilled blackjack player) but that small edge is enough. I will put in one small caveat regarding beating casinos since you can actually get odds ranging from 51-53% in your favor if you’re counting cards in blackjack. I did this for awhile and not only was it strenuous with big winning and losing swings, but as soon as I started to make significant gains I got banned from the game.

Bottom line, you can’t beat casinos.

Why You Can Beat Poker – Explaining the Poker Rake

So what makes high stakes poker an exception? Well, high stakes poker is a completely different game. You’re actually not trying to beat the house but rather you’re trying to beat the players and the poker rake. While the rules differ slightly based on the number of players (fewer players means smaller rake) and the particular casino you’re at, in general the house takes 10% up to $3 of every pot. That means the casino is taking a small cut of the winning player’s take. This is the poker rake. See Poker Rake for more specific details.

High stakes poker is a skill game and you’re betting that your skill is better than the other players at the table while giving up a small portion of your pot to the house (call it rent). Think about Michael Jordan playing basketball for money and he has to give up a cut to the guy who owns the court. That’s the same thing that Johnny Chan does every time he plays poker. He gives up the poker rake to the house.

Bottom line, you can beat poker because you’re not playing against casinos but playing a skill game against players.

When It’s Tough to Beat the Poker Game

I find it more difficult to beat a lower limit poker game. Although there is a lower level of skill in a smaller game this is not always a good thing for you. If play deteriorates to the point where everyone stays in with anything all the way to the end then everyone will break even.

Consider that if you and I put money in a pot and let it ride then we would each win 50% of the time losing money due to the poker rake. However if we now made the game so that we can make decisions regarding betting, calling, and folding we now have a skill game that you can beat. This is often the problem with lower limit Texas Holdem. You have everyone willing to play everything all the way to the end. In effect they are taking the skill out of the game. I'm not saying that you can not beat this game, I'm simply noting that you must use a different strategy.

Why High Stakes Poker Can be Easier to Beat

Let’s go back to my earlier point. Generally the house takes 10% up to $3 for their rake. 10% is a high margin which you have to overcome in gambling and in fact would be extremely tough to overcome if casinos always took 10%. Luckily in high stakes poker this percentage shrinks as the pot increases due to the $3 cap. See more about High Stakes Poker. The cap is $3 which means that all pots over $30 give up less than 10% to the house. So if you’re playing in a $4-8 game where the typical pot size is small the poker rake that you’re giving up a high percentage to the house.

Now when I’m playing in a $15-30 or higher game where pots range from $100 - $150 (I’ve seen pots up to $800) I’m giving up a much smaller percent to the house. If the pot is $100 I’m only giving up 3% which is relatively small compared to the money you’re gambling.

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