Introduction to Probabilities in Poker
To be successful in
Texas Holdem poker you must know
the probability of improving your hands to help you in
your decision to bet, check, raise or fold. See
Poker Pot Odds for a detailed discussion around the
importance of this topic and
Poker Draws for an advanced discussion on how to
play your draws. Below are a few probability charts
showing the likelihood of the following:
- The probability of holding specific Texas Holdem
hands preflop.
- The probability in Holdem poker of what you will
flop with certain holdings.
- Would you rather hold A/K or a pair? - Probable
outcomes of what hand will win in poker.
The Probability in Texas Holdem that you will be
Dealt Preflop:
|
Probability of being dealt: |
Percent of the time: |
Odds against: |
2-Aces
2-Kings
High pairs: 2-Queens through 2-10s
Medium Pairs: 2-9s through 2-sevens
Small Pairs: 2-Fives through 2-Deuces |
0.45 %
0.45 %
1.36 %
1.36 %
1.81 % |
220 to 1
220 to 1
73 to 1
73 to 1
54 to 1 |
Ace-King suited
Ace-King offsuit
Ace-Queen or Ace-Jack suited
Ace-Queen to Ace-Jack offsuit |
0.30 %
0.90 %
0.60 %
1.81 % |
331 to 1
110 to 1
165 to 1
54 to 1 |
King-Queen suited
King-Queen offsuit |
0.30 %
0.90 % |
331 to 1
110 to 1 |
Ace with less than Jack, suited
Ace with less than Jack, offsuit |
2.71 %
8.14 % |
36 to 1
11 to 1 |
Any Pair
Any two suited cards
Two connectors, suited with 4 ways*.
Two connectors, offsuit, 4 ways*.
Any hand with a Pair or an Ace |
5.88 %
23.53 %
2.11 %
6.33 %
20.36 % |
16 to 1
3.25 to 1
46 to 1
15 to 1
3.91 to 1 |
* = Connected cards that can make a straight in 4
different ways. For example, Jack ten can make a
straight with A-K-Q, K-Q,9, Q-9-8, or 9-8-7. Ace King
can only make a straight in one way, Q-J-10 and thus the
possibilities for making straights with this hand are
less.
In Holdem, the probable amount of times that you
will flop the following:
| You
hold: |
After the flop you will: |
Likelihood: |
Holding a pair
Holding A/K
2 suited cards
2 suited cards
2 unmatched cards
|
flop three of a king or better
flop an Ace or King
flop a flush
flop 4 to a flush
flop 2 pair
|
12 %
32 %
less than 1%
10 %
2%
|
What is more probable to win, Ace King or a pair of
Jacks?:
|
Player A holds: |
Player B holds: |
Probable winner: |
AK suited
AK suited
AK offsuit
AK offsuit
AK offsuit
AK offsuit
A pair of Aces
AK suited spade
AK with A on flop
|
A pair of 9s
A pair of 3s
A pair of 9s
A pair of Jacks
AQ offsuit
AQ suited
A pair of Kings
Ten-9 suited diamond
Open end straight flush |
A pair of 9s - 52.4% favorite.
A pair of 3s - 51% favorite.
A pair of 9s - 54.9% favorite.
A pair of Jacks - 56.5% favorite.
AK - 74% favorite.
AK - 69.7% favorite.
Aces - 82.6% favorite.
AK - 61.3% favorite.
Open end straight flush - 56.3% favorite. |
“You really want to make that call with Ace King?
You're a coin toss against any pair and drawing
virutally dead against Aces or Kings!"
Although this statement is true it misleads the
reader into thinking that they would rather have a pair
of 3s instead of A/K. Odds and probability charts such
as the ones provided here can be misleading in terms of
what hands poker players like and why. In a tournament
if I pushed "all in" with a pair of 3s and my opponent
called with A/K suited I would be happy because I am the
probable winner. However if I was playing in a Limit
poker game I believe that A/K suited would probably win
more money in the game long term. If you're interested
in why this is so, please read
Poker Starting Hands and
Advanced Thoughts on Ace King. |
