Poker Probabilties and Odds - Texas Holdem Probability

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Poker Probabilities in Texas Holdem

Introduction to Probabilities in Poker

To be successful in Texas Holdem poker you must know the probability of improving your hands to help you in your decision to bet, check, raise or fold. See Poker Pot Odds for a detailed discussion around the importance of this topic and Poker Draws for an advanced discussion on how to play your draws. Below are a few probability charts showing the likelihood of the following:

  1. The probability of holding specific Texas Holdem hands preflop.
  2. The probability in Holdem poker of what you will flop with certain holdings.
  3. Would you rather hold A/K or a pair? - Probable outcomes of what hand will win in poker.

The Probability in Texas Holdem that you will be Dealt Preflop:

Probability of being dealt: Percent of the time: Odds against:
High pairs: 2-Queens through 2-10s
Medium Pairs: 2-9s through 2-sevens
Small Pairs: 2-Fives through 2-Deuces
0.45 %
0.45 %
1.36 %
1.36 %
1.81 %
220 to 1
220 to 1
73 to 1
73 to 1
54 to 1
Ace-King suited
Ace-King offsuit
Ace-Queen or Ace-Jack suited
Ace-Queen to Ace-Jack offsuit
0.30 %
0.90 %
0.60 %
1.81 %
331 to 1
110 to 1
165 to 1
54 to 1
King-Queen suited
King-Queen offsuit
0.30 %
0.90 %
331 to 1
110 to 1
Ace with less than Jack, suited
Ace with less than Jack, offsuit
2.71 %
8.14 %
36 to 1
11 to 1
Any Pair
Any two suited cards
Two connectors, suited with 4 ways*.
Two connectors, offsuit, 4 ways*.
Any hand with a Pair or an Ace
5.88 %
23.53 %
2.11 %
6.33 %
20.36 %
16 to 1
3.25 to 1
46 to 1
15 to 1
3.91 to 1

* = Connected cards that can make a straight in 4 different ways. For example, Jack ten can make a straight with A-K-Q, K-Q,9, Q-9-8, or 9-8-7. Ace King can only make a straight in one way, Q-J-10 and thus the possibilities for making straights with this hand are less.

In Holdem, the probable amount of times that you will flop the following:

You hold: After the flop you will: Likelihood:
Holding a pair
Holding A/K
2 suited cards
2 suited cards
2 unmatched cards
flop three of a king or better
flop an Ace or King
flop a flush
flop 4 to a flush
flop 2 pair
12 %
32 %
less than 1%
10 %

What is more probable to win, Ace King or a pair of Jacks?:

Player A holds: Player B holds: Probable winner:
AK suited
AK suited
AK offsuit
AK offsuit
AK offsuit
AK offsuit
A pair of Aces
AK suited spade
AK with A on flop
A pair of 9s
A pair of 3s
A pair of 9s
A pair of Jacks
AQ offsuit
AQ suited
A pair of Kings
Ten-9 suited diamond
Open end straight flush
A pair of 9s - 52.4% favorite.
A pair of 3s - 51% favorite.
A pair of 9s - 54.9% favorite.
A pair of Jacks - 56.5% favorite.
AK - 74% favorite.
AK - 69.7% favorite.
Aces - 82.6% favorite.
AK - 61.3% favorite.
Open end straight flush - 56.3% favorite.

You really want to make that call with Ace King? You're a coin toss against any pair and drawing virutally dead against Aces or Kings!"

Although this statement is true it misleads the reader into thinking that they would rather have a pair of 3s instead of A/K. Odds and probability charts such as the ones provided here can be misleading in terms of what hands poker players like and why. In a tournament if I pushed "all in" with a pair of 3s and my opponent called with A/K suited I would be happy because I am the probable winner. However if I was playing in a Limit poker game I believe that A/K suited would probably win more money in the game long term. If you're interested in why this is so, please read Poker Starting Hands and Advanced Thoughts on Ace King.

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